{5.2.2, Figure SPM.1}, ranges of 3–4%, 9–14%, 4–11% and 9-16% respectively, relative to 2006–2015. Oxygen loss between 100 and 600 m depth is projected to emerge over 59–80% of the ocean area by 2031–2050 under RCP8.5 (very likely). Extreme El Niño events are projected to occur about as twice as often under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the 21st century when compared to the 20th century (, ). People with the highest exposure and vulnerability are often those with lowest capacity to respond (high confidence). Such investments enable capacity-building, social learning, and participation in context-specific adaptation, as well as the negotiation of trade-offs and realisation of co-benefits in reducing short-term risks and building long-term resilience and sustainability (high confidence). {6.7}, A.3. The potential to chart Climate Resilient Development Pathways varies within and among ocean, high mountain and polar land regions. There are greater increases projected under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 from around mid-century to 2100 (, in changes in the future frequency of tropical cyclones at the global scale. These sea ice changes in September are, unprecedented for at least 1000 years. {4.3.3, 5.3.2, 5.3.6, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, Figure SPM.2}, A.6.2 Increased sea water intrusion in estuaries due to sea level rise has driven upstream redistribution of marine species (medium confidence) and caused a reduction of suitable habitats for estuarine communities (medium confidence). Arctic and boreal permafrost contain 1460–1600 Gt organic carbon, almost twice the carbon in the atmosphere (, whether northern permafrost regions are currently releasing additional net methane and CO, due to thaw. The ocean and cryosphere support unique habitats, and are interconnected with other components of the climate system through global exchange of water, energy and carbon. SIDS are home to 65 million people. The rates and magnitudes of these changes will be smaller under scenarios with low greenhouse gas emissions (very likely). {2.2.2, 3.4.1, Figure SPM.1}, A.1.3 Permafrost temperatures have increased to record high levels (1980s-present) (very high confidence) including the recent increase by 0.29°C ± 0.12°C from 2007 to 2016 averaged across polar and high-mountain regions globally. It is virtually certain that the global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970 and has taken up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system (high confidence). Current snowmaking technologies are projected to be less effective in reducing risks to ski tourism in a warmer climate in most parts of Europe, North America, and Japan, in particular at 2°C global warming and beyond (high confidence). Rainbows are another important weather symbol, with close ties to the.  The total rate of sea level rise is greater than the sum of cryosphere and ocean contributions due to uncertainties in the estimate of landwater storage change. Tourism and recreation, including ski and glacier tourism, hiking, and mountaineering, have also been negatively impacted in many mountain regions (medium confidence). Note that, as this story proves, weather is an equalizing force, affecting the most and least powerful in society and sometimes forcing them to interact with one another. While the relative importance of climate-driven sea level rise is projected to increase over time, local processes need to be considered for projections and impacts of sea level (high confidence). {2.3.3, Box 3.4, 3.4.3}, B.4.1 In high mountain regions, further upslope migration by lower-elevation species, range contractions, and increased mortality will lead to population declines of many alpine species, especially glacier- or snow-dependent species (high confidence), with local and eventual global species loss (medium confidence). {4.3.3} The assessment criteria include exposure and vulnerability (density of assets, level of degradation of terrestrial and marine buffer ecosystems), coastal hazards (flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization), in-situ responses (hard engineered coastal defenses, ecosystem restoration or creation of new natural buffers areas, and subsidence management) and planned relocation. Around 670 million people (nearly 10% of the 2010 global population), including Indigenous peoples, live in high mountain regions in all continents except Antarctica. Municipalities and industry are beginning to address infrastructure failures associated with flooding and thawing permafrost and some coastal communities have planned for relocation (high confidence). Additional terms (extremely likely 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than likely 0–<50%, extremely unlikely 0–5%) are used when appropriate. In some places, artificial snowmaking has reduced negative impacts on ski tourism (medium confidence). As part of the assessment, literature was compiled and data extracted into a summary table. Some disasters have been linked to changes in the cryosphere, for example in the Andes, high mountain Asia, Caucasus and European Alps (medium confidence). In press. Differences from the global mean can be greater in areas of rapid vertical land movement including from local human activities (e.g. The sky was clear, allowing crystal blue to stretch for as far as the eye could see in every direction, and even though the air was bitterly cold with the bite of high winter, the sun still provided some warmth, though not nearly enough too so much as touch the thick blanket of snow on the ground that covered everything in a bright, crunchy layer of white. The conversion between GMST and SST is based on a scaling factor of 1.44 derived from changes in an ensemble of RCP8.5 simulations; this scaling factor has an uncertainty of about 4 % due to differences between the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Marine heatwaves (very high confidence) and extreme El Niño and La Niña events (medium confidence) are projected to become more frequent. {3.4.3, 5.4.2, Box 5.3}, B.8.4 Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and their services put key cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods at risk (medium confidence), including through shifts in the distribution or abundance of harvested species and diminished access to fishing or hunting areas. range) for the period 2081–2100, and 0.43 m (0.29–0.59 m. range) in 2100 with respect to 1986–2005. {3.2.1, 5.2.2, Box 5.1, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2}, Datasets spanning 1970–2010 show that t, range of 0.5–3.3% over the upper 1000 m, alongside a, expansion of the volume of oxygen minimum zones by 3–8% (, xygen loss is primarily due to increasing ocean stratification, changing ventilation and biogeochemistry (, Observations, both in situ (2004–2017) and based on sea surface temperature reconstructions, indicate that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ). Projected ecosystem responses include losses of species habitat and diversity, and degradation of ecosystem functions. biophysical, geographical, financial, technical, social, political and institutional) during the second half of the 21st century. This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ or ‘very likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17-83% or 5-95% probability range.  A marine heatwave is a period of extreme warm near-sea surface temperature that persists for days to months and can extend up to thousands of kilometres (Annex I: Glossary). Ecosystem-based and hybrid approaches combining ecosystems and built infrastructure are becoming more popular worldwide. We'll make guides for February's winners by March 31st—guaranteed. It can “wash away” illusions, as happens to Hagar in. In nearly all high mountain areas, the depth, extent and duration of snow cover have declined over recent decades, especially at lower elevation (, Permafrost temperatures have increased to record high levels (1980s-present) (, ) including the recent increase by 0.29°C ± 0.12°C from 2007 to 2016 averaged across polar and high-mountain regions globally. Anthropogenic climate change may have contributed to a poleward migration of maximum tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific in recent decades related to anthropogenically-forced tropical expansion (, ). Further information on methods and underlying literature can be found in Chapter 5, Sections 5.2 and 5.3 and Supplementary Material. Instant downloads of all 1403 LitChart PDFs {4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SM4.3, SPM C.1, Glossary, Figure SPM.5}, B.9.3 Globally, a slower rate of climate-related ocean and cryosphere change provides greater adaptation opportunities (high confidence). Significant risk reduction and adaptation strategies help avoid increased impacts from mountain flood and landslide hazards as exposure and vulnerability are increasing in many mountain regions during this century (, ). extraction of groundwater). RCPs are scenarios that include time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use / land cover. At this point Jon's pretty certain he'd said something wrong - which is heartily confirmed when Arya practically murders his ear by yelling, "Jon fucking Snow, you wake me up at this goddamn fucking hour expecting me to run across the fucking city just so I can give my fucking phone to my fucking--" Language: English Words: 496 Chapters: 1/1 Under the same assumptions, annual coastal flood damages are projected to increase by 2–3 orders of magnitude by 2100 compared to today (, ). {4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SM4.3, SPM C.1, Glossary, Figure SPM.5}, that ambitious adaptation, including governance for transformative change, has the potential to reduce risks in many locations, such benefits can vary between locations. Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence). These approaches also support water resource management through the development and optimization of multi-purpose storage and release of water from reservoirs (, ), with consideration of potentially negative impacts to ecosystems and communities. {5.2.2, 5.3.1, Figure SPM.3}, B.6.4 Almost all warm-water coral reefs are projected to suffer significant losses of area and local extinctions, even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C (high confidence). {3.2.3, 3.3.3, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.4.1, Figure SPM.3}, ). 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